Gold – Long, Medium and Short Term Analysis

There is presently no excitement about gold.

Gold Monthly Chart

Take a look at the monthly chart:

Gold Monthly

Gold Monthly

First, look at the channel that has been formed over the past 20 months or so. Gold has continued to trend downwards within this channel. The ADX indicator is firmly bearish, with the -DI line above the +DI line.

However, the ADX line itself, has been working its way down from a strong trending reading above 50 back in 2011 to just 23 today, indicating that the tendency of gold to continue to trend downwards is diminishing.

The RSI indicator is bearish, hovering around 40.

The only positive sign, and it is only just positive, is the MACD where the MACD line has just managed to touch and cross over its signal line.

Overall, the monthly chart provides a bearish outlook for gold.

Gold Weekly Chart

Looking at the weekly chart:

Gold Weekly

Gold Weekly

You’ll see that the weekly chart is pretty similar to the monthly in its outlook. I don’t really see anything indicating a positive outlook for gold, except for the bullish wedge pattern that I’ve drawn on the chart. Two of the indicators, the RSI and the  ADX are bearish. The third, the MACD, looks like it is about to become bearish again.

Gold Daily Chart

What’s the daily chart show?

Gold Daily

Gold Daily

On the daily, all three indicators are presently bearish. The ADX line has turned down a little, indicating a slight weakening in the downward trend of gold.

There is resistance at 1214, and gold is also bumping up against the red downward trend line that I have drawn on the chart.

Summary

Considering the monthly, weekly, and daily charts above together, there is no real bullish outlook for gold at the present time. Investors are obviously looking elsewhere for places to put their funds. Of course, a geopolitical event could change that and help keep the price of gold up.

However, at present, it appears that gold will find it hard to keep its 1200 handle.

Existing Home Sales Plunge Downwards

Peter’s commentary:

Existing home sales dropped again.

Houses For Sale Photo credit to TaxRebate.org.uk

Houses For Sale
Photo credit to TaxRebate.org.uk

From ZeroHedge, Feb 23, 2015

With homebuilder sentiment slipping, blamed on the weather (despite improvement in the Northeast), Architecture billings down, and lumber prices down, it should not be totally surprising that existing home sales collapsed in January, which they just did tumbling -4.9% against expectations of -1.8% to a worse than expected 4.82 million SAAR (4.95 expected). This was the biggest January drop since 2010, and is the lowest existing home sales since April. <Source>

And don’t blame the weather. The largest drop in home sales occurred in the West where the weather has been considerably warmer and sunny.

Yellen “Dovish”, Sees Economy Healing

Yellen Caricature

Peter’s Commentary: Fed Chair Janet Yellen was fairly “dovish” today with her comments. Inflation is currently below the 2% target rate. Yellen said that the inflation rate needs to move up to the 2% target before the Fed will consider increasing interest rates. At present the Fed is not seeing any significant pickup in wage growth. Because wages […]

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Ukraine Preparing For Full Scale War…Or Not?

Ukrainian Tank

Peter’s Commentary: Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Vadym Prystaiko says he is preparing for full-scale war against Russia. Prystaiko wants Canada to supply lethal weapons and training to Ukraine. From CBC News, February 21, 2015: Vadym Prystaiko, who until last fall was Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, says the world must not be afraid of joining Ukraine in the fight […]

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Ports Shutdown Averted, But Huge Backlog

Handshake

Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, forged a compromise between the West Coast dockworkers and their employers. From Bloomberg: “This is now in the rear-view mirror,” Labor Secretary Tom Perez told reporters late Friday outside the San Francisco headquarters of the Pacific Maritime Association, which had been locked in the contract battle with the International Longshore and Warehouse […]

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Enforce Cease-Fire Or Not?

Peter’s Commentary: The four leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine talked by phone this Thursday. They condemned the fighting which has broken out during the week and agreed to continue to implement all the measures approved on 12 February in Minsk. However, Bloomberg reports that Germany may be unable to stop weapons being delivered […]

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Russia Launches New “Swift” System

St Petersburg, Russia

Peter’s Commentary: About 18 months ago, Europe and America threatened that they would stop Russia from using the SWIFT system. The SWIFT system is used to send money between financial institutions and is critical for countries to be able to trade with each other. Due to these threats, Russia has developed its own system. This […]

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Iraq Situation Report, February 14 – 16

Iraq Situation Report Feb 14 - 16

Peter’s Commentary: Here’s the latest Iraq Situation from UnderstandingWar.org. It details fighting and skirmishes that have occurred in Baghdad and north of Baghdad.  Major clashes are marked by red asterisks on the map. On February 15, ISIS executed 15 Peshmerga members they had captured previously. The situation in Baghdadi, (250 miles west of Baghdad), remains unclear; […]

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3 Possible Outcomes For Greece

Temple of Athena

Peter’s Commentary: Three possible outcomes for the Greek situation… From ZeroHedge, Tyler Durden, and Bloomberg, Vassilis Karamanis, February 17, 2015: When it comes to trading the possibility of a Grexit, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes,that there are three possible outcomes. Scenario 1: Greece exits the euro Probability of Grexit is now increased to 50% from […]

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Silver Down Hard As Grexit Optimism Fades

Peter’s Commentary: Silver has fallen hard today. Dropped more than 5%. From ZeroHedge, Tyler Durden, February 17, 2015 It appears the overnight exuberance at the possibility of a Grexit is fading fast… Silver – already weak overnight – was suddenly monkey-hammered lower on massive volume… WTI is down almost $2 from intrday highs, testing towards $51.50 […]

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