Greeks Rejected By IMF And Russia

Greek hopes of an extension to pay 747 million Euros after May 12 are rejected by the IMF.

Christine Lagarde states that no payment delays have been granted by the IMF in the last 30 years. And that it is the job of Greek financial ministers to carry on the tedious work of restoring the Greek economy. It is not done by a political last minute agreement.

Christine Lagarde lays out the actions necessary to stabilize the Greek economy. And sees the process gradually picking up.

And what about the rumors that were flying about at the weekend?

Russia denies agreeing to a gas pipeline deal that would bring advanced funds of 5 Billion Rubles in to Greece’s coffers.

Gold….Where to from here?

If you want to know if an investment is likely to go up or down… or stay the same…take a look at its price chart. Preferably, the daily, weekly and monthly chart so you get an understanding of the short term, medium and long term outlook.

We looked at all three of those last week. So let’s look at the weekly today:

March 22 Gold

March 22 Gold

 

The first thing you notice when you look at this chart is that the price slants from the top left to the bottom right. That shows it is definitely bearish.

Look at the well defined channel for the last 18 months or so. Gold has been steadily trending downwards within the channel (red lines) depicted on the chart, making a series of lower highs and lower lows.

On Friday last week, an outside reversal was made where the price fell to lower than the price of the previous day, but closed out above the high of the previous days’ close. (Marked with a blue oval).

This is a bullish signal and it looks like gold could rise up in the short term to the 1220 or maybe even the 1250 resistance level. However, it will be really hard to get further than this and it is most likely that gold will resume its bearish trend thereafter.

All three indicators on the charts are currently in bearish mode. The RSI is below 50 and not bullish. The MACD is bearish having crossed below its signal line and both lines are pointing downwards. The ADX is bearish, with the -ve DI (directional indicator) line above the +ve DI line. And the ADX line itself, is only at 20, not indicating any strong trend at all. Once the ADX line goes above 30, it indicates a strong trend which can be either up or down.

Let’s see what the GLD ETF is telling us about gold. I look at the amount of gold held by the ETF to provide an indication of western demand for gold.If the figure is increasing, gold demand is up, if it’s  decreasing, it’s down.

GLD Gold Holdings Tonnes

GLD Gold Holdings Tonnes

Gold holdings at the beginning of January were 709.02 tonnes.

They increased from there to 773.31 tons by 5 February, and have since declined to 744.4 tonnes. Thus, though GLD holdings have increased since the beginning of the year, they are currently declining, indicating reduced interest from Western investors.

Summary

The outlook for gold is currently very short term positive with resistance levels at 1220 and 1250. Gold is unlikely to work through the 1250 level. It is more likely to continue its downward trend within the red channel depicted above.

$52k Gold Theft From Safe In Garage

Not So Safe

Peter’s Commentary Do you keep your valuables in a safe? You might want to reconsider after reading what happened to a songwriter in Hollywood… From NBC Los Angeles, March 17, 2015: Thieves made off with about $52,000 worth of gold and other valuables after breaking into a safe at the Hollywood home of songwriter to […]

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Russian Sanctions Likely To Remain In Effect, But Ineffective

Red Square, Moscow

Peter’s Commentary: The economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia are likely to remain in place. At least until the cease-fire in Ukraine is working properly. Angela Merkel stated today that it would be premature to ease any pressure on Moscow at this stage. European governments have been trying to decide whether to renew […]

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ECB Preparing For Grexit

Holdings of Greek Government Debt

Peter’s Commentary: The Germans are getting mighty tired of Greece. Especially with their World War 2 Reparations talk. A poll published by Germany’s YouGov.de showed that public opinion has turned against Greece dramatically during the last month. The number of Germans in favor of a Grexit rose from 48% to 59% in the last 30 days according […]

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Highway Robbers Grab Gold

Highway Robbery

Peter’s Commentary: I know this story is over a week old. But it’s a classic highway robbery. $4 million in gold stolen from a tractor-trailor on the Interstate 95 in Eastern North Carolina. From Reuters, March 2, 2015 Two armed security guards employed by the transport company, TransValue Inc, reported the robbery around 6:45 p.m. […]

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China’s SWIFT System Ready To Launch By October

Peter’s Commentary China has just completed its alternative to the SWIFT system for international payments. It will be ready to launch this in September or October this year. From ZeroHedge, Tyler Durden, March 9, 2015 One of the recurring threats used by the western nations in their cold (and increasingly more hot) war with Russia, […]

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Gold Demand By China Appears To Be Double Official WGC Figures

Peter’s Commentary Koos Jansen has done a lot of research into gold demand by China. He has found that both in 2013 and 2o14, that the amount listed as China’s gold demand by the World Gold Council is approximately half the figures reported by China itself. And China is also probably under-reporting both its gold imports […]

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Global Trade Slowing Warns World’s Largest Container Shipper

Peter’s Commentary: The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed to historic low levels, indicating a slow down in global trade. Indeed, South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world’s largest container shipping company, has just reported losses of $3 billion in 2014. Note that in 2013, the same company reported profits of $730 million. And this is […]

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Gold – Long, Medium and Short Term Analysis

Gold Monthly

There is presently no excitement about gold. Gold Monthly Chart Take a look at the monthly chart: First, look at the channel that has been formed over the past 20 months or so. Gold has continued to trend downwards within this channel. The ADX indicator is firmly bearish, with the -DI line above the +DI […]

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